The threat or the worry over recession has been the theme or a sub-theme for the last year. At the same time the stock market has been on a run. If we're so worried about a recession, why does the stock market continue to climb?
A recession has been predicted now for the last 12 months and the economy seems to be sort of chugging along pretty well. But why would you be concerned? One is the yield curve has been inverted. When the yield curve inverts, inevitably there's a recession soon after. But when you look at the history of this indicator, you don't get the recession until the yield curve un-inverts but currently it’s still inverted.
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